Netflix will never catch up to YouTube
PLUS: How the Daily Show became relevant again
Welcome! I'm Simon Owens and this is my media industry newsletter. If you've received it, then you either subscribed or someone forwarded it to you.
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The Streaming Wars Come Down to 2: YouTube vs. Netflix
From the New York Times:
[Netflix and YouTube] accounted for 20 percent of all television viewing time in the United States in May — 12.5 percent for YouTube, 7.5 percent for Netflix, according to Nielsen. The next closest streaming competitor is Disney, whose multiple streaming services (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) together accounted for 5 percent of TV time in May, Nielsen said.
And YouTube’s lead keeps getting wider. Two years ago, YouTube’s share of TV time was roughly half a percentage point higher than Netflix’s — now it is five percentage points.
I don't think there's any universe where Netflix could ever catch up to YouTube unless Netflix were to somehow radically change its model. Through YouTube's revenue share, it's basically created the perfect flywheel wherein creators are able to take the money they generate from their videos and plow it back into their channels. Because YouTube doesn't pay advances, it avoids the problems traditional Hollywood companies face when a movie or TV show flops. It only pays for hits.
YouTube is also just endlessly nichefied, which means its can serve both broad and narrow audiences simultaneously. And finally, YouTube is free to consume, a dynamic that will always give it a leg up against any platform with a paywall.
The only way for Netflix to catch up would be to open itself up to user generated content, and I just don't think it wants to do that.
Local news meteorologists are joining the Creator Economy
I received this note from Craig Ford:
Simon,
Thought you might find this interesting for your Substack. A former co-worker of mine in Tupelo, Mississippi, recently left his job as chief meteorologist at the television station we worked at to form his own weather channel that is digital only (web, app, OTT). It was significant locally since he worked for the top-rated station in the market and became known locally for his tornado coverage. His departure and new venture were on the front page of the local paper. Then this morning, I saw where the most popular broadcast meteorologist in Alabama, James Spann, is launching a digital weather channel of his own. He’s keeping his job as chief meteorologist at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, however.
As a regular reader, I know you’re always looking for ideas. Both of these ventures coming within weeks of one another just jumped off the page to me, especially with the transition that’s happening in the media world. Anyway, hope you find this useful.
Thanks Craig!
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The Minecraft generation is cashing in
Minecraft is not only the most popular video game of all time, but it's also helped inspire a new generation of startup founders who fell in love with coding and building while playing the game. Some of these entrepreneurs build and sell in-game products, but plenty have gone on to launch companies that have nothing to do with Minecraft. [Business Insider]
HBO Max Needs More HBO
From Puck:
Instead of diversifying the quality of content that the service offers, [WBD CEO David] Zaslav and HBO chief Casey Bloys have finally decided to focus on expanding the types and genres of its premium content—and betting that a smaller, more focused product can reach a level of meaningful engagement. Indeed, the data repeatedly showed that users were returning for tentpole programming, including The White Lotus, The Last of Us, and other HBO series, plus the best of the Max originals, like The Pitt and The Penguin. Neither is classic HBO fare, but they scratch the same itch for a new generation.
The streaming wars are over: It’s now YouTube and Netflix’s world. But if HBO Max can stop chasing everyone else and start chasing meaningfully engaged audiences—leaning into the HBO brand as it does—it might just thrive under a set of new expectations. Customers want splashy, culture-dominating TV shows, but that requires an emphasis on harnessing quality, not throwing spaghetti at the wall.
I agree that HBO is the strongest brand in the Warner Brothers Discovery stable, but I also wonder how much its quality can be scaled with more shows. Premium content requires a lot of love and attention — the kind of love and attention that can't be rushed. The more shows HBO pumps out, the greater the chance it'll see a diminishment in quality, which would dilute the brand.
Also, prestige TV is just extremely expensive. Netflix's success isn't just due to its mix of highbrow and lowbrow fare; it's that the lowbrow stuff costs a lot less to produce and can be pumped out at a faster pace. Netflix spreads its risk around so that any one ratings failure isn't devastating to its bottom line. WBD has a much smaller content budget, and if it makes bigger bets on a smaller number of shows, then any ratings dud will have an outsized impact on its subscriber growth and financial health.
ICYMI: How the GameDiscoverCo newsletter launched a data product for game developers
Simon Carless carved out a niche in the gaming industry by tracking the metrics around game releases.
The Information expands its business model
From Axios:
The Information on Monday will launch its first live video product, TITV, hosted by reporter Akash Pasricha …
The show, which debuts Monday at 1 p.m. ET, will include guests from within The Information's newsroom and its source rolodex to talk about the biggest stories of the day across tech, business and AI …
The show will live be streamed live on YouTube, X and The Information's website. It will be available on-demand across those channels and podcast platforms, such as Apple and Spotify.
What makes this move interesting is that the Information is investing so many resources in a free product; it's traditionally been laser focused on creating content that exists solely behind a hard paywall.
‘The Daily Show’ Hits A Ten-Year Ratings High
From Deadline:
Nielsen data shows that the second quarter of 2025 was the show’s best quarterly share since the third quarter of 2015 when it comes to viewers in the 18-49 demo in live-plus-three numbers …
It’s also no surprise that Monday nights – the sole night that Stewart has carved out to host the show – are The Daily Show’s best performing shows. Mondays have scored its best share and rating since his return in the first quarter of last year.
I was a diehard Daily Show watcher in the 2000s and then mostly fell off during the 2010s. It's not that I thought Trevor Noah was a bad host, exactly, but rather it just didn't fit into my media diet, especially after I cut the cable cord.
Now I find myself tuning into its main segment several times a week —but I watch it on YouTube. A lot of the credit for that goes to Noah for really ushering the show into the 21st century and beefing up its online distribution. But I also think the show has really innovated with its rotating host format. Its satire is just as biting as it's ever been.
Beyond its linear TV ratings, it's just clear the show’s getting enormous reach, especially on YouTube. Its main segment regularly pulls in several million views, especially when Jon Stewart hosts on Monday. I think you could make an argument that the Daily Show is more influential now than it's ever been.
There's been a lot of discussion lately about finding the "liberal Joe Rogan," but I kind of think the Daily Show performs that function. The comparison isn't 100% apples to apples, but the appeal of Joe Rogan is that he's an entertainer who mostly interviews other entertainers and occasionally slips into politics. The Daily Show is more overtly political, of course, but it packages the politics in a comedy vehicle, which helps it reach consumers who might not regularly tune into the nightly news.
My other newsletter: The best longform journalism we consumed this week
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